Post by Piurek on Mar 10, 2005 21:35:08 GMT 1
Ricardus said:
Who will the USA attack next?Well, the USA is divided on who to attack next. The 'Administration' would like to attack Iran next (no doubt about it) and will have instructed military planners to draw up plans to do just that. They would like to attack Iran to satisfy their backers (U.S. Oil Corporation interests) However,
The U.S. Military will be extremely reluctant to attack anyone right now. The war on Iraq is far from over and the troops they have deployed there right now are being stretched to the limit. In the US itself Military recruiters are finding it difficult to recruit (even amongst the traditional poor and unemployed labour pool) so - looking at the logistical element of Military planning - they will be extremely wary of attacking anyone while they have unfinished business elsewhere.
The US is building up a sizeable military presence in the middle east so it makes sense (from a logistical viewpoint) to attack someone where you already have concentration of force (the principle of concentration of force) They just don't have the means (or the budget) to make it fly.
As for North Korea - this is just US posturing against 'Baddies' and nothing more. There is simply nothing to gain from attacking them (unless you believe that the US goes to war to 'protect us from baddies')
My bet is that there is a lot of shouting, threatening and wringing of hands within the Whitehouse and the Military community at the moment and a very divided US attitude. If the war on Iraq had been the 'pushover' they expected it to have been - Iran would already have been invaded.
Ricardus
Iran's $127 billion budget for 2004/2005 reportedly was based on a price assumption for Iranian oil of around $19.90 per barrel. This compares to an average price for Iranian crude oil in 2003 of around $26 per barrel, and a forecast price for 2004 of around $30 per barrel. Iranian budget deficits have been a chronic problem, in part due to large-scale state subsidies -- totaling some $4.7 billion per year -- including foodstuffs and especially gasoline. Higher oil export revenues the past couple of years have helped ameliorate this situation, as Iran gains around $900 million in revenues for every $1 per barrel increase in the price of its oil. Excess revenues above $15 billion or so are slated to go into an oil stabilization fund
